With Mountainous’s soggy Welsh National Triumph a hazy memory – for the Lee’s at least – we’ve now had the glut of major races that mark the pre Festival crescendo of the jumps season. With last trials for the races – unofficially commencing with the Clarence House at Ascot next week – the time for looking to the races with a critical eye may be now, with targets far more clear now even if there is guessing to be done and the value of performances much more evident after a good three months of racing. With that in mind, I’m going to take a look at the shape of the races so far for the first two days and how the ante posts I recommended so far on my earlier blog, which you can take a quick look at here – are doing.
Day 1
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
Already Advised: 1 pt each/way Modus (20/1 general), 1 pt each/way Yanworth (20/1 general)
It’s all Min, Min, Min. And rightly so, given the hugely impressive performance he gave – visually – in the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle, when he tanked through the race with almost alarming eagerness before sprinting away unextended to win by 13 lengths after the last. Let’s start with the positives. He jumps brilliantly. He is following the same route trusted to Douvan and Vautour, both deeply impressive winners and favourite or joint favourite on the day. He is also from the same sire as Douvan, and clearly held in the same regard. There is also some substance to his deeply impressive performance, having beaten the 132 rated Ball D’Arc with far more in hand than the 13 length margin would have suggested, and with Gurteen (who he beaten by 14 lengths on debut) having won since. Now the negatives. There’s only one, and it’s the price. Min is currently evens with William Hill and 7/4 elsewhere. One would imagine that price will surely hold until the morning of the festival, where he is there and well in one piece, and probably the subject of offers for new accounts and specials a plenty in what is shaping up to be a very good renewal. For all he has had tons in hand, the same can be said of the many other contenders in this field here and it is hard to get enthused about what is one of the shortest prices of the festival already.
Altior was arguably just as impressive at Kempton when slamming the 132 Open Eagle – most likely sent as a sighter – in brilliant style, having responded immediately and relentlessly to pressure as soon as Nico De Boinville applied it. The form of that race looks pretty rock solid, with Open Eagle rated (), Marracudja a dual winner (seven lengths further behind) and Simon Squirrel beaten at least 10 lengths further behind. There seems to be no downsides to an eachway bet for all others have won in similar style.
Willie Mullins and Graham Wylie had Shaneshill finish second last year and either of Yorkhill or Bellshill would be have to be entitled to major respect. Yorkhill was notably impressive in the Tolworth, travelling all over the winner in the hock deep ground before winning well despite jumping into runner up O O Seven and running notably green up the home straight. He was more impressive than Bellshill in the Lawlors Hotel Novice Hurdle, for all that Bellshill won convincingly and responded generously to pressure after traveling well. The Supreme has responded well to stayers, with many who take it going onto stay three miles, but there may be speedier types and the Neptune could yet be the target for both.
Last year’s Champion Bumper – and the bumper stock of last year in general – looks to be outstanding judged on the performances of those involved in key bumpers at Punchestown and the Cheltenham showpiece. The subsequent performances of last year’s Champion Bumper read: 23 wins (13 horses), 14 placed and 22 unplaced, a sign that led me to Yanworth and Modus, fourth and second that day. Yanworth was one of a clutch who travelled powerfully down the hill, but found himself trapped wide in the straight whilst the first three nipped up the inside before making a bold bid in spite of that fact. He has barely come off the bridle in winning three hurdles, with runner up and third Welsh Shadow and Barney Dwan having won from his debut at Exeter and Le Prezien having also won well after being well beaten. Smooth at Ascot in the Kennel Gate, his preparation is going smoothly and few will be as well suited by the eventual test as any other horse.
Modus met with his first defeat at Taunton just before the New Year, where a combination of a penalty and near untraceable ground saw him beaten. Based on his bumper form and two hurdling wins, one where he beat a subsequent wide margin winner at Newbury in cosy fashion despite a narrow margin, he has a good handicap mark, but back on good ground with a strong pace one would expect much better.
Buveur D’Air was a high class bumper horse but looked much improved on his hurdling debut, when he travelled sweetly before trashing Wait For Me – third in the Champion Bumper – sprinting clear and ending up 12 lengths to the good. It must first be said that Wait For Me did not run to his best form that day, having pulled notably and given a shoddy round of jumping before tiring late on in extremely testing ground. However the runner up has since won again easily (with a subsequent winner behind) and the turn of foot that Bouveur showed was that of an improved horse. He would be the pick of the current market leaders not already in the portfolio, with the advice to back him before a declaration for the Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle.
Tombstone was extremely impressive on debut and then didn’t get the best of rides according to Bryan Cooper in what looked a very strong renewal of the Future Champions Novice Hurdle. He was green early and keen through most of the race before making a mistake when least needed and losing at least a length and a half which in the end would have proven crucial. Long Dog’s experience and Ruby Walsh’s canny ride turned the tables that day but improvement can be expected and should the two meet again, it would be no surprise to see tables turned. Connections have said the Supreme is the target and that they are not scared of Min, but he may be one for longer distances. The same is likely true of Long Dog, who is confirmed to stay further.
Supasundae was an impressive winner at Leopardstown, when he crucially settled much better than he did in the Champion Bumper. It would be interesting to see him again however, which apparently is the plan.
Arkle Chase
Already Advised: 1 pt each/way Sizing John (12/1 general), 1 pt each/way Vaniteux (10/1 general)
The aim of this is to try and find bigger priced winners, but the Arkle looks at the mercy of Douvan, so impressive in the Racing Post Novice when probably forcefully diverting Sizing John to the JLT. The Supreme Novices winner was at one point challenge by our ante post pick, but he then drew effortlessly clear up the home straight and looks to have all bases covered in a race which has the potential to cut up now.
Our other choice Vaniteux lost nothing in defeat against Ar Mad at Kempton, especially on the clock given the time compared with the Desert Orchid. What’s more, the winner is not likely to go for the Arkle given his preference for going right handed (although a change of direction could be employed in a trial) which leaves him as one of the strongest form contenders in the race. So far, so good.
The one of the main contenders I’d be keenest to get with currently would be L’Ami Serge, fourth in the Supreme when things didn’t go his way from start to finish and an impressive debut winner on his return. He surely needs another run and it may come in the Lightning Chase at Doncaster, but he may not have shown his absolute best so far for Nicky Henderson.
The horses that provided Richard Johnson with his 3,000th winner today, Garde La Victoire won well at the Open meeting and was a classy hurdler, but will need to jump better and owed much of his victory to the keenness of runner up Fox Norton early, who himself is interesting. Shaneshill is sure to go to the JLT and nothing else looks good enough to get involved should the main charges show their form.
The Festival Trophy
This market hasn’t really formed totally for my liking but it should be noted that this is a strong trends race for when the time comes. The Irish haven’t had the best record in this race but supplied two of the first three home last year and Grand Jesture and Gallant Oscar would have to be of serious interest here if returning. Gallant Oscar made steady late progress into third last year, having been out the back, and has since bolted up at Punchestown too. Now rated 148 (Ireland) he’s rocketing up the weights, but he was not out of the Paddy Power Chase when falling and remains of interest for this or the Grand National if aimed at either contest. Grand Jesture’s start issues prevented him from going for another big prize since, but if he consented to start he’d be of interest. Ucello Conti and Minella Foru are of obvious interest given the amount of improvement that they must have left, with both so unexposed at three miles, whilst an appearance from likely National types Wakanda, The Last Samuri, and Kruzhlinin would attract serious interest.
Champion Hurdle
Already Advised: 1 pt each/way Peace and Co (9/1 general), 1 pt each/way Windsor Park (25/1 general)
The current bets look a lost cause barring a miracle. Peace and Co’s Triumph hurdle form actually has worked out OK given how the test probably went against his strengths, but his complete and utter lack of control in the International Hurdle was dismaying and one can only reserve judgements until he is next seen, which will either be at Haydock or in the Betfair Hurdle. Windsor Parks’ reappearance in the Ryanair was a no goer on horrendous ground and a frustrating one, although hope can he held for him if we do get the usual good ground for Cheltenham. This test should be ideal, but the World Hurdle is on the radar and there is much to prove for him.
In beating The New One, Old Guard and Hargam by seven lengths, Faugheen looked more his old self in the Christmas Hurdle, but on figures he won as he should have done with ease in the Christmas Hurdle, which took place in his ideal conditions against opposite was rated well clear of. Prices of 8/13 based on that success look folly given that he will surely not be allowed the easy lead that he had when winning in admittedly compressive style last year. He is better than he showed in the Morgiana Hurdle for sure; but the market seems to have taken a form reversal with Nichols Canyon for granted, which seems a premature move, and the Irish Champion Hurdle should tell us a great deal. There we should see Artic Fire, who did not get three miles in awful conditions – although he is said to have also been under form as well with connections claiming he would not have won at any trip. Second last year, he found the lack of pace in the race against him but made powerful late progress to be a quite clear runner up. This year it is hard to imagine anything but a more strongly run race, and back to form he looks a serious each way contender.
Identity Thief disappointed as a novice thanks to physical issues, but with his health problems a thing of the past he has won the VKD and Fighting Fifth Hurdle, and he gave no quarter until very late on in a terrific battle with Nichols Canyon in the Ryanair Hurdle. Whilst the winner may be bettr on better ground, he may not be that far away either.
Some have mentioned Camping Ground, but he would need to be on soft or heavy and others make more appeal in those conditions.
Mares Hurdle
Already Advised: 1 pt each/way Polly Peachum (14/1 Stan James, Bet Victor, Hills)
At the mercy of Annie Power if she stands up and arrives fit and well, but two others must fill the places and this looks to be one of the best ante post bets so far. Beaten on her seasonal reappearance at Kempton in the same race that she was pulled up in last season, she showed exceptional spirit in ground that she would have detested to give 4lbs and a beating to the 144 rated The Govaness with useful types in behind. That was her first win on anything hut good to soft, which means ground should not be an issue at Cheltenham, and inches prevented her from taking the Mares’ Hurdle last season. On good ground, she has to take the beating again.
Auoure D’Estruval ran a sound race in the Reelkeel on her comeback and should be upto going well with that behind her, so looks to have sound chances, especially based on her second to Irving in the Fighting Fifth a couple of seasons back. Vroum Vroum Mag would be a big price at 12’s if she came here, but it would likely take the non-appearance of Annie Power for her to show up here. Listen Dear, one of many smart mares for Supreme Racing, could also take a hand here; Lily Waugh has shown plenty of progression so far this season but will find this much harder than winning handicaps off 134.
National Hunt Chase
First things first; Pont Alexandre won’t go here. Rici Ricci’s eight year old is his main and only contender for this title and the speed he has shown so far in his career would suggest the RSA is his target (amazingly over a trip he’s never tackled). Black Hercules, a disappointment in the Albert Bartlett when favourite last year and then a 12 length winner over Sabremont at Navan, must go well if coming here although that is the same for a number of Mullins’ charges, including Roi De Francs (last year’s Martin Pipe third, as favourite), and Milsean (should he reappear over fences this season). Of those, Roi Des Francs is of most interest, having been well supported in his bid for the Martin Pipe last year when beaten by two very well handicapped horses in Killutagh Vic and Noble Endeavour, and having since been beaten by only Monskland on his debut before then winning well stepped up in trip. He ought to go very well.
Just as interesting is Rule The World, who was able to lay no finger on No More Heroes at Leopardstown over Christmas, but who is a 148 rated chaser who was second in the Irish Grand National and who has since finished third in the Kerry National. This trip is just what he wants on the likely ground and it looks a realistic target, so if he is to be sent here then he must be given the utmost respect.
This is one of the races where Britain and Ireland will be clashing on equal terms and Southfield Theatre and Native River, second and third in the Feltham, make the most appeal of the British contingent. Southfield Theatre probably got a better ride and was more suited by Kempton than Native River on Boxing Day, but he had previously been a gutsy winner of the Grade 2 December’ Novices at Doncaster the time before and was a wide margin chase winner previously. Native River may still go through to the RSA, which would be an understandable target, but this course and distance will surely see him in his element.
Onenightinvienna, second in a good contest on the new course when last seen, is another r British contender who’s form stacks up extremely well with Blaklion (his conqueror the last time he was seen) having since run a fine second in a Grade 2 event. He’s now headed for the RSA.
Chaps Novices’ Handicap Chase
As hard to tell with the shape of this race than any other but there are some interesting stats to take note of closely here. Nicky Henderson trained the winner in 2013 and has had the runner up 3 times and JP McManus owned horses have finished second on 3 occasions (and third in 2014). Full Shift was much improved from his chasing debut when landing a race Seven Barrows are fond of on Boxing Day at Kempton, beating a previous 12 length winner (Bekkensfirth), with the third 12 lengths behind. He has significant potential to improve again from that effort, and if improving his jumping, is as likely a contender as can be found. Rebecca Curtis’s Imagine The Chat, an impressive winner at Newbury, had the race fall into his lap to some extent but is worthy of respect here and surely has improvement in him off a lowly rating (most winners 133-135).
Day 2
Neptune
Already Advised: 1 pt each/way Shantou Village (16/1 Paddy Power), 1 pt each/way Yanworth (16/1 general), December 17th
New Advice: 1 pt each/way Barters Hill (16/1 Paddy Power)
Reports suggest that Yanworth could easily go here and according to trainer Alan King he will run over the trip in the Neptune Trial on Trials Day, a bold show of faith in his credentials for staying the trip given that the ground is likely to be testing with the rainfall in the South West at this moment in time. I have already gone over his hurdling performances so far on day one, and would rate his chances highly in either contest.
The sheer speed that Shantou Village showed when landing the Hyde Novices’ Hurdle at the Open Meeting was a show of special talent; That the form has been confirmed with two wins, one giving 10lbs to the runner up, for the 14 length runner up Champers On Ice, is just tremendously exciting and the sky looks the limit for Neil Mulholland’s charge. It should be noted however, that he goes on a sound surface and have never run on ground with soft in the description, and it would be no surprise to see him run below form on trials day in a deep surface before bouncing back to form.
Both Bellshill and Yorkhill could run here, with Bellshill the shorter of the pair and presumed much more likely to take his chance; It is likely that this race would suit both of them more than the Supreme, especially if there was to be a good gallop present; Yorkhill may want another run given the greenness he showed in the Tolworth once pressure was applied, but both would have to be taken seriously.
It was common presumption that Barters Hill was going to go for the Albert Bartlett following his impressive Challow Hurdle win, but Ben Pauling has since given pointers to him potentially going for this race and he must be backed wherever he turns up. Having had a brilliant bumper campaign, he looked in trouble at points on his hurdling debut but once finding overdrive, he eventually came home 14 lengths clear of North Hill Harvey, who went onto win a strong Cheltenhan Novice Hurdle by four and a half lengths. He ran green around the turn in the Challow and then needed routing in the Challow, but once again eventually ended up sprinting clear, beating the Grade 2 winner Label Des Obeaux and the French winner Politologue with ease.
His greenness around the sharp old course would be a worry – although with another run he could still improve – and he may be deceptive in terms of his speed; He beat Buveur D’Air in a Newbury Listed bumper and then went onto beat Bellshill in the Aintree Bumper, and there is no doubting his form or eventual attitude under pressure. The 16/1 Paddy Power dangle is a tempting price and one worth taking each/way.
Gigginstown are sending Tombestone to the Supreme so Petit Mouchoir and Disko both need respecting. It’s not impossible that Petit Mouchoir can improve past Long Dog, who beat him in the Future Champions at Leopardstown and will surely come here with Min going for the Supreme. He got left behind that day and is probably crying out for this step in trip if maturing fast enough; Long Dog is overpriced on bare form, but has stood an awful lot of racing already and how much improvement can be found is very much in doubt.
This looks late in the day for Forgotten Rules to make the switch to hurdles and nothing else appeals as being good enough to get involved at this stage.
RSA
1 pt each/way Killtuagh Vic (16/1 general)
There is a worry that Killtuagh Vic may go elsewhere, but the RSA look the natural option for im with Douvan going to the Arkle and Shaneshill to the JLT (with Outlander a possible for that race too). He jumped smartly enough on debut and whilst another race – in graded company – would be preferable before he went, there is nothing to put me off him at this moment in time and his hurdles form is of the highest quality, even if he was lucky to beat Thistlecrack at Punchestown last time.
No More Heroes looks a worthy favourite, having jumped smartly and found a smart turn of foot for pressure in landing the Drinmore Novices Chase, and he did little more than he had to – again jumping much the best and cruising to an easy win. He is now short enough and won’t contract pre race.
More Of That has looked the horse of old in two impressive chasing wins so far, showing a handy turn of speed on each occasion over a shorter trip at Cheltenham. His engine is not to be doubted, and on the bare form shown so far he is the better priced of the two market leaders, but one would want to see him under pressure before backing him for this prize.
Pont Alexandre found the Neptune of 2013 too much of a speed test for him as The New One sprinted away, and subsequent problems had keep him off the track until his deeply impressive reappearance in early December when he romped clear. He may go to the PJ Moriarity and has to be respected although one would want to see him run again before backing him.
Seeyouatmidnight was gutsy in beating Blaklion to land a good quality Dipper, but the runner up may reverse the form on equal terms and better ground. Both are hardy stayers, although on hurdles form there are some better. Nothing else makes appeal at this stage.
Coral Cup
The Betfair Hurdle has provided three of the last 10 winners, so look closely to that race and so too are the Ladbroke Hurdle and Boylesports.com Hurdle are also good guides. Rennetti appeals as being the type who will be able to take a big hand if he’s not left himself at the start although he is highly rated now (147) for a winner of the race. The front three in the Lanzarote Hurdle appeal as likely contenders, with Ibis Du Rheu of that bunch sure to appreciate a stiff test, but there’s a few contenders sure to show their hand.
Champion Chase
This is looking far more competitive and exciting than at the beginning of the season, with the return to form of Sprinter Sacre and Sire De Grugy giving a clear challenge to market leader Un De Sceaux, set to run in the Clarence House. All of them will take a good deal of beating – and what a great thing it would be to see Sprinter or Sire win, but there are doubts over all, enough to swerve at the current prices. Special Tiara looks too big at 10/1 in relation to either given his unlucky second in the Tingle Creek, but Dodging Bullets is surely overpriced if making it there. If the reigning Champion Chaser – set to reach the Game Spirit at the last time of checking – can make it then he would have every chance.
Of the biggest prices, Felix Yonger, impressive in the Hilly Way Chase, and a smart jumper in the main who handles all sorts of ground, stands out as being a big price – if sent there.
Cross Country
Which JP horse wins? Josies Orders is the new star on the block, having won over course and distance twice this season at the Open and International meetings, beating a very solid yardstick in Sire Collonges last time out. Quantatitiveeasing, going well when carried out last year, as a good winner of the Risk of Thunder chase latest and should be up to going well. Both will take the beating.
Each-way players have plenty of horses to pick from, with Sire Collonges a likely type, and Any Currency – limp last time – sure to be very well suited by the conditions (level weighted) of the Cross Country. This looks ambitious for Balthazar King given his problems since falling in last year’s National; Rivage D’Or was uniquely weighted although he surely is being trained to peak for this again so is of some slight interest, but is this not a race with obvious betting appeal ante post.
Fred Winter
A race for big priced winners and hardly ante post betting, but not the excellent record of the David Pipe and Paul Nicholls’ yard too, along with French bred or imported horses. Chic Name had Adrien Du Pont on the stretch for a good while in the Finale Juvenile at Chepstow and is a confirmed runner, but barring that it’s impossible to think of a couple of names and this is one to play on the day.
Champion Bumper
Easier to list the horses that we won’t be seeing here. Admiral Chief and Lucky Pass aren’t going, Per Gigginstown’s new policy, and Fulham Road is injured still. Some Neck’s bumper second at Leopardstown reads well through the winner (who cannot run as he ran in a hurdle) but not so through the rest of the bunched up field when he looked more a stayer; Pearl Bloodstock’s Castello Sforza has not been seen since last summer;
Copeland and Ballyandy have won Listed bumpers over course and distance, with Ballandy’s form much the best so far, but both could be swamped by unexposed types on the day for all that one would imagine that Ballyandy could cope with better ground. It could pay to watch Ascot’s bumpers closely on Clarence House and Ascot Chase day.
The (New) Vic Page 