It has become clear that we are dealing with a different Chelsea under Guus Hiddink than the one that limbered through their so called title defence under Jose Mourniho and they should knock up another win against West Brom this evening. Since Hiddink has taken over Chelsea have gone unbeaten in five games, four of those in the league, and they have scored eight goals in their four league games during that period.
They cost themselves victory against Watford with a missed penalty and whilst Diego Costa – scorer of as many goals in his last three games as he had in his previous 21 appearances – is a doubt in some sections, the Blues are carrying something like the attacking threat that they did last year with Willian’s productivity now supplemented by Oscar and Pedro’s creativity and incisive runs. Cesc Fabregas has returned to some sort of form too, giving Chelsea much more options than through the first half of the season.
West Brom have had a strong Christmas and should avoid the drop with relative ease once again. However wins against Newcastle and Stoke came at home, and their away record does not make for pretty reading; they have won just once against a side that concurrently resides in the top half of the table this season, and that was an early season victory against a Stoke side now in much better form. They are not likely to be disgrace, but there is plenty to like about Chelsea all of a sudden and they should be capable of giving punters a run for their money on the one goal handicap.
Manchester City’s away record continues to be the subject of much scrutiny following defeat in the League Cup at Everton and but at the Etihad there’s no better side in England and they can reverse that trend with victory in front of their own fans against the Toffees. Manuel Pellegrini’s side actually had a strong Christmas for their title credentials, bouncing back from defeat at Arsenal to take a hard fought point at Leicester before a fine comeback against Watford, winning the game with two goals in five minutes.
Everton have explosive attacking potential, but defensive mistakes have robbed them of a number of results. That said, City were shown of the danger they pose going forward when the two met in the League Cup, with Ross Barkley, Gerard Deulofeu and Romelu Lukaku all making a big impact once again. Their 2-1 victory was deserved and the control that Mohammed basic and Gareth Barry managed to exert late on should give them some confidence.
However this City side has lost only to Liverpool in their last 11 home games and have an eight two win record at the Etihad in the league this season. They have not kept a clean sheet in 13 of those home games, so both teams to score looks a strong shout and there could be plenty of goals on the agenda. City look backing to win with both teams to score.
Norwich look to have strong survival credentials following a fantastic Christmas period with three wins from four festive fixtures, but they face a tough task against a Stoke side making the Britannia a fortress again. Mark Hughes’s side were beaten by Crystal Palace thanks only to a last minute goal, and in other home league games in December saw Stoke beat both Manchester clubs to nil and their sole outing in November saw them defeat Chelsea. They were more in control over Manchester United than Norwich were (albeit their victory having come at Old Trafford) and in the likes of Bojan Kirkic, Marko Arnautovic, and Ibrahim Afellay they have players all good enough to break through Norwich’s defence.
Southampton’s shock 4-0 win over Arsenal has been followed with three straight defeats and they are in serious danger of being dragged into the relegation side by Watford tonight. The Saints are somehow evens shots to take three points tonight despite losing eight of their last ten games in all competitions, taking just three points from their last 24 possible and exiting two Cup competitions by an aggregate score of 8-2.
Watford have lost their last two in the league but those were defeats against Manchester City (third) and Spurs (fourth), both of which came via very late goals where a point was the least they deserved twice. They have taken 15 of their 29 points on the road this season, and have lost at only Leicester and Manchester City on the road this season, avoiding defeat in their other seven away games. Take the 10/3 on Watford winning and the 20/23 they get at least a point.
Tottenham and Leicester meet in a repeat of their FA Cup third round tie and if this game is anywhere near as good then fans at White Hart Lane are in for a treat. 15 changes from those sides makes for a likely different matchup today, but it could be just as competitive and open. Predictions of the Foxes demise look to be an overreaction to a tricky Christmas period and the match odds are tricky here.
Tottenham have been beaten just once in their last 19 league outings, and Leicester have lost just one of their last 16 away. However, goals could be on the agenda here. Seven of Spurs’s last eight games at White Hart Lane have gone over 2.5 and 80% of Leicester’s away games have seen the same result. Either that or both teams to score looks a good call tonight, but the stats say to trust overs.
On a big night for title aspirations, Arsenal travel to Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp’s injury woes saw him forced into fielding what was essentially a youth side as they drew 2-2 at Exeter, but they should be able to field a full back four for the first time in a good while and that dramatically improves their prospects. A bigger concern is a lack of goals this season – 22 goals in 20 league games – and a relatively poor home record, something which hasn’t changed with the arrival of Klopp. Of their four home wins, three have come against sides 16th or below and Leicester were under par when visiting; They were also blown away against West Ham in their last league game.
Arsenal have their own injury issues however, missing Alexis Sanchez and Santi Cazorla amongst their main contenders tonight. However in the shape of Mezut Ozil they have the league’s leading playmaker and Aaron Ramsey has been loving life with the midfield freedom afforded by the departure of Cazorla and in Theo Walcott/Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain they have two wingers capable of stretching the play for Oliver Giroud. They should be capable of giving Liverpool plenty to think about, but they have not played well since their win against Manchester City, and this could be best watched.
Elsewhere, it is impossible to get excited from a betting point of view about Swansea against Sunderland.
Advice
1 pt Chelsea -1 (11/8 general)
1 pt Manchester City to win and both teams to score (9/5 Coral)
3 pts Watford/Draw (17/20 general)
1 pt Watford (10/3 general)
1 pt Stoke (evs general)
1 pt Over 2.5 goals in Tottenham v Leicester (9/10 Stan James)
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