The battle for survival in the Premier League has never been bigger and more hotly contested with the Championship becoming an ever more fearsome league – providing better preparation for the Premier League – and several lower mid table sides having struggled more than once in previous years.
The market has the three promoted sides heavily favoured to make the drop back but since 2008-09 there has been only one season where more one promoted club has gone down – last year – and the arrivals this season look to be an impressive bunch.
Watford are hot favourites to go down but everything about their squad has the mark of a team that should be aiming for mid table at the least. Under the guidance of the Pozzo Family – who have turned Udinese into a source of some of Europe’s best players as well as a Serie A side for 25 of the last 30 years – and managed to move Granada up two divisions while maintaining their status as a La Liga club since 2011, Watford have changed completely from the side that failed to reach the 30 point mark in their two previous visits.
Indeed, they’ve changed their side hugely with a whole raft of new additions who bring experience and talent that would not be sniffed at by sides chasing European football in many occasions. Tottenham’s Etienne Capoue looks to be a really solid purchase in central midfield and Swiss partner Valon Berhami has played at three World Cups and has previous experience of the league with West Ham.
In defence the capture of Jose Holebas looks a steal, the Greek having 27 caps and also making 24 appearances for Serie A runners up Roma last year and at right back Allan Nyom has three full La Liga seasons under his belt with Grananda. Sebastien Prodl has Champions League experience from his time with Werder Bremen as well as the small matter of 49 Austria caps and even while Miguel Britos was a liability for Napoli last season, he does bring plenty of clout with 66 appearances for the Italian club including a Coppa Italia win.
Steven Berghuis had a breakthrough season for AZ Alkmaar, coming good after the new year with 12 combined goals and assists on both the left and right wings towards the end of last season, and while Jurado is more of a risk on the left side, he did notch 11 times for Spartak Moscow last season and has previously played for Atletico and Real Madrid.
It’s almost a new team but Troy Deeney scored 21 goals in the Championship, looking like a natural who had the ability to make the step up to the Premier League and Amen Abdi can join him.
Watford went through four managers on their way to finishing second in the Championship so Qique Sanchez Flores is in a real hotseat but it’s worth remembering that he took Atletico to the Europa League in 2010 and his pedigree should not be doubted.
The worry is how 10 new players fit in with each other but Watford’s first few fixtures are as kind as they could have hoped for and if gelling with each other quickly then this looks a side that can easily stay up.
While Watford were chopping and changing, Bournemouth were charging to the Championship title, going out and attacking everything and everyone in sight as they became a fans favourite with their swashbuckling style of football. The culmination of a remarkably rise over 6 years – they finished 21st in League 2 in 2009 – Howe’s men scored 98 goals in the Championship last season and predictably topped just about every attacking metric.
There hasn’t been any amount of spending on the level of Watford but what deals have been done are extremely shrewd ones. Serious money was put down for Tyrone Mings to come over from Ipswich at left bank – and with good reason – while Christian Atsu is just the kind of player that Howe thrives off with his speed and skill perfect for Bourne.
Slyvin Distin brings plenty of experience from his Everton days if needs be in the defence and Adam Federici impressed many in the FA Cup in goal for Reading.
As for the exiting players, Callum Wilson was the Diego Costa of the Championship last year with all 20 of his goals coming from inside the box and Matt Richie scored 15 and assisted 17 goals in a remarkable campaign. The worry is what happens in terms of injuries – eight players made 40 or more appearances and they’re particularly vulnerable in terms of squad depth but if the spine of the team stays fit then they can survive and do so in style.
Playoff winners Norwich also owe much of their success to a progressive manager, with Alex Neil having come fresh from having taken Hamilton to the Scottish Premiership before jumping into the hotseat with the Canaries in seventh and guiding them to third place with a higher points per game average than Bournemouth or Watford (indeed, they took four points of the title winners and beat Watford 3-0 twice).
They then took apart Middlesbrough in the playoff final with a sterling performance to underline their guts for the big occasion. There’s no doubting their quality but much of the squad is the same outfit that got relegated the season before last and while that means they have Premier League experience it shows a need for improvement in the squad.
Graeme Dorrans and Youssouf Mulumbu have been bought in from West Brom to keep the midfield ticking over but Robbie Brady went down with Hull last year and they could be the most vulnerable of the promoted sides.
Aston Villa were the subject of very strong support to go down over a summer which saw them lose the spine of the team that has kept them up for the last four seasons – albeit with a highest finish of 15th – but Tim Sherwood has been very reactive in the transfer market and may have done enough to stay up.
Christian Benteke’s absence has the potential to be devastating but the capture of Jordan Ayew from Lorient was a smart move with the Ghanaian boasting many of the same attributes that the Belgian bought to the party. He scored 12 times in Ligue 1 for Lorient last season and took more shots on goal than all but Zlatan. Rudy Gestede is making the step up from Championship Level but scored 20 goals last year and could be a smash hit if making the grade.
Fabian Delph’s absence in midfield will hopefully be covered by Idrissa Gueye, who arrives from Nice, and no player managed to make more interceptions in Ligue 1 than Jordan Amavi, who arrives from the same outfit at left back. Jordan Vertout may be the more creative man on the other side of the midfield based on his performances at Nantes last season, a move that wouldn’t go amiss. This in turn will hopefully relieve pressure on Jack Grealish, sure to come into the spotlight.
Ron Vlaar’s departure’s a body blow too but Micah Richards is a well-travelled centreback now who may be able to go some way towards filling the gap and he must do so with Ciaran Clark reliant upon his partner last year for so much of the season. Much depends on how the new arrivals all slot in, but there looks to be quality in those numbers and Villa can avoid the drop again.
Leicester were the only promoted side to stay up last season with the much maligned Nigel Pearson eventually guiding them to safety but the PR disasters over the summer, combined with his exit, could be an ominous sign.
New boss Claudio Ranieri has a wealth of experience but Pearson, for all his attitude stunk, had a big effect on the squad’s revival past Christmas – they won seven of their last nine games, having won just 4 of the first 29 – and so did Eastabian Cambiasso, now released from the squad.
Ranieri has moved quickly to try and replace him and improve the squad, and in defence the arrival of experienced International Christian Fuchs makes for a promising pairing alongside Stoke’s Robert Huth, and in attack Shinji Okazaki brings real quality to proceedings. The 29 year old has 43 in 93 for Japan and scored 9 times for Mainz last season in the Bundesliga. Competition for Jamie Vardy and Leonardo Ulloa can only be a healthy thing to keep standards high and there are goals in the team.
N’Golo Kante is stepping up from Ligue 2 however and the rest of the side struggled for so much of last season barring keeper Kaspar Schmeichel, so Leicer could easily find themselves in the mire.
That’s what has happened to Sunderland for the last three seasons and they may not launch another great escape. Big Dick Adovcaat swooped into save things last year and his record of three wins and three draws amongst the nine games he oversaw was a solid way to seal promotion given that Sunderland won only seven all season.
However they only won seven for a reason and there have to be doubts about the same areas that saw them struggle so much last year. They scored just 31 goals last year and the arrival of forward Jermaine Lens needs to have a better effect than the 10 goals in the last two seasons he’s had. Jermaine Defoe could be a better bet for goals but is not the scorer of old and much relies upon Jack Rodwell and Henrik Larsson with Lee Cattermole a tackline and yellow card machine (14 yellows in the League Season).
Adam Johnson has made the headlines for obviously negative reasons but he will need to bring his a-game. Defensively and Sebastian Coates looks a good signing alongside John O’Shea to bolster up the rearguard – one that conceded as many goals as Relegated Burnley, one of the only teams that scored fewer goals but the problems look to be ahead of them and a side that has failed to make 40 points for the last three seasons looks in danger.
Advice
3 pts Watford to stay up (6/5 general)
2 pts Sunderland to be relegated (9/4 Betbright)
1 pt Sunderland to finish bottom (8/1 general)
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